Want to learn the most important rule in sports betting that separates the novices from the pros? It is the idea of betting on value instead of just trying to pick winners. Most people who bet on sports are not very good at it. This is because they do not have a proper understanding of the basic principles of betting and also because they are not very good at predicting outcomes.
This indicates that you need to think about more than just the simple prospect of a team or athlete winning when betting on them. You really need to look at that prospect in relation to the odds offered by the sportsbooks. Finding value in the odds is the only way to have a long-term profitable outcome when betting on sports.
Suppose that after analyzing all the data, you determine that the Houston Rockets have a 50/50 chance of beating the Boston Celtics in a game (not yet played). The bookmakers expect the Celtics to win and set the Rockets' odds at +200. Which team should you bet on? The answer is simple: bet on the Rockets.
The odds of winning could hardly be lower. If you trade for James Harden and then around him for the amount of players the Rockets used last season, you rank a supposedly elite team 10th in offense, 14th in defense, and 11th in net rating. To not have them in the playoffs-and probably as a top seed-in a league with a clear hierarchy of good, okay, and bad teams is to have a world in which they don't really exist as functional units.
Similarly, if a sportsbook has a line that gives a team a 20% chance of winning, but your analysis gives them a 24% chance, this is actually a value bet. It may seem counterintuitive to bet on a team with only a 24% chance of winning, but over time, the math will work in your favor. The increased profit when the bet wins will offset the losses incurred the other 76% of the time.
Consider a final example to illustrate this method in its simplest form. You want to bet on the outcome of a coin toss. Let us assume that each half of the coin has a 50% chance of landing face up. So the fair payout would be even money. In this case, however, the bookmaker offers odd odds. You could bet $300 to win $100 on heads, or $100 to win $250 on tails.
Bet on tails! The odds of +250 imply a 28.57% chance, much lower than the real 50% we know is there. Even if you believe that heads will be the winning side, you cannot make this bet. A $100 bet on heads at these odds will return only $33.33 on a winning flip, but you'll be out the entire Hunsky on any loss.
Calculating Implied Probability
When making decisions about what's right, you need to know what the odds say about the expected probability. The implied probability is the number you are comparing to the actual odds of the event you are predicting. If the implied probability is the lower number, then the bet has value. This is a big factor in the decisions you make.
To determine the implied probability, use the following equation:
We will therefore analyze this Houston Rockets game once again. The odds of +200 are converted to decimal numbers of 3.0. This indicates the equation we are solving: Sometimes numbers can seem a little confusing.
After analyzing both teams and checking the statistics, we determined that the Rockets actually have a 50% likelihood of winning.
Determining the value of a bet has to start somewhere. And that place very often leads to figuring out the odds and what they mathematically suggest about the likely outcome of an event. To be a good bettor, you have to understand what makes the number go up and down (and sometimes even what makes it stay the same). But understanding the number also means understanding the math that gets you from the number back to the likely outcome of the event.
Professional bettors spend countless hours studying the correlations in the data and building statistical models. They then run hundreds of simulations using their validated models and determine the odds based on which outcome is most likely to occur. The more accurate their estimates, the easier it is to identify good betting opportunities. Having the best data available is essential.
Tips for Predicting Probability
Identify Meaningful Data
No matter how detailed you decide to make your research, it is important to find the type of data that strongly correlates with the outcome of the game. In today's non-stop sports news cycle, there are so many distractions that can lead you astray.
Pay attention to which pundits make the most accurate predictions, and which seem to always get it wrong.
Another thing you might consider is taking advantage of the many online sports stats sites. Many of them offer a breakdown of their stats down to the quarter or inning level. Maybe you'll see a pattern in the data that leads you to a stronger gut feeling about which team is going to win the game. Maybe you won't. But either way, you'll have a good sense of what information is available to you and how useful it is, and that's what betting is all about.
Bet What You Know Best
The more you understand a group, sport, or competition, the better you can predict its outcome. More accurate predictions are generally associated with a higher level of intimacy with the subject. When you understand both the basics and the more intricate details of a sport or a group playing a sport, you have a much better idea of what kinds of statistics or other information to focus on and what kinds of information to ignore.
The quickest way to get a feel for consistently discovering betting value is to not bet on things you don't fully understand.
Keep Records of Your Bets
An excellent practice to get into is to keep a record of your bets. Note which team you bet on, the odds you took, the reasoning behind the decision, and the outcome of the bet. When you make a statement, a decision, or a bet, have a record of it to refer to later. You will be infinitely better off for it. You should also keep a record of any bets made against you.
Another benefit of keeping an up-to-date betting log is that it helps you identify the types of bets that are working for you and those that are not. If you do not keep a log, it can be difficult to determine where your bets are succeeding and where they are failing. Even more so, it is difficult to see with clarity your overall betting behavior if you do not write it down.
The Best Handicappers Build Models
This tip depends on how dedicated you are to sports betting. The most successful sports bettors spend countless hours poring over advanced analytics and making changes to their calculations to make them as accurate as possible. These handicappers work with data and information from all over and rank it based on what they've observed.
After building a model, a sports gambler runs thousands of simulations of the model contest, collecting a large number of outcome variations. The most consistent results are what these professional gamblers base their decisions on. They take these consistent results to represent the model's probabilities, then measure the probabilities against the implied values of the bets they can make, and sometimes place a bet.
Calculating Whether a Bet Has Value
We have already shown you one way to calculate the implied probability from the odds offered. But there's another simple calculation that can help you quickly determine whether or not a bet has positive value. As with the other formula, you have to make up your own number for the "probability" part.
Let’s use the +200 Houston Rockets once again. Remember, our models showed that Houston has a 50% chance of victory.
Tips for Long-Term Success Gambling
Shop Around for the Best Odds
After you've made all your predictions about the odds, be sure to check out the odds offered by several different sportsbooks. The lines offered by different bookmakers may be a little different, and it's certainly worth your while to find the most favorable odds possible. In sports betting, the absolute razor-thin margins that separate the winners from the losers often determine which way the money flow goes in the long run.
Exercise Bankroll Management
Bankroll management is an essential practice for anyone wishing to participate in sports betting. It involves setting aside predetermined amounts of money for your gambling accounts.
When dealing with a bankroll, the most important factor is not to bet money you cannot afford to lose. Those who gamble with borrowed money are almost certainly betting more than they can afford, and that is a sure way to financial ruin.
Adhere to a Staking Plan
To ensure that you make a profit on your high-value bets, force yourself to stick to a strict betting schedule. A staking plan organizes your bankroll over a set, arbitrary period of time for a set number of bets. For example, someone with a $1,600 bankroll for the NFL regular season might decide to make one $100 bet per week.
It can be tempting to deviate from the betting plan after a loss and bet more on the next bet in an attempt to recoup the lost funds. This is a bad idea and should be avoided at all costs.
You certainly don't want to get on a winning streak and start betting way more on every single bet just because you feel like you're on a roll. We recommend that you stick to the betting system you set up in the first place. You will be much happier in the long run.
The Wrap Up
For most inexperienced players, it seems easy to make selections based solely on which team they think will win the contest. This method may work for a short period of time, but in the end, the bettor who doesn't know any better will end up losing money. To really come out ahead, you need to find bets that have quantifiable value.
If the probability of an outcome occurring is greater than what the odds imply, we have a good bet. The hardest part of assessing value is figuring out who is actually likely to win. This is not something that can be done in an afternoon. Good value evaluators spend the time and do the serious work necessary to take sports betting beyond a casual, game-to-game endeavor. They use research and, depending on their level of commitment and confidence, often rely on some pretty sophisticated analytical models to get them to the promised land.
It will be difficult at first, but by continually refining your data and noting which data corresponds to winning bets, your probabilities will become more accurate over time. The numbers associated with your results will become clearer, and the decisions you make based on the comparisons will have a much higher level of confidence than before. And why is that? Because you're now working with something that closely resembles a foundation of unshakable odds.
In the end, what really matters is the right mathematical decision, and you may be surprised that you once tried to pick only the winners.